Core Human Geography: Population

Paper 2
Core Human Geography: 1 hour 30 minutes
Section A: Three data response questions (30 marks)
Section B: One structured question from a choice of three (30 marks)
60 marks
AS Level 50% A Level 25%

4.2 Demographic Transition

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a model which shows changes in population over time through combining lines for birth rate and death rates on a graph. Knowing these two factors allows one to calculate the natural increase of a population, and an understanding of this will allow you to better understand how a country develops over time in terms of its population – or its demographic make up.

Below you can see the DTM which is made up of 5 stages (well….kind of, but more about stage 5 later!!). This version has also included population pyramids which should be familiar from section 4.1, so you have an extra visual about what the population will look like in each of the stages.

Mr Sinn created the video below for AP Human Geography so ignore his references to AP – what you need to know for AS level is the same and he explains each stage clearly.

Watch the video and annotate your own sketch of the DTM (or using the download below) with the information that he shares about each of the stages. Particularly think about his comments regarding stage 5 – personally I think it exists and should be recognised as a separate stage – but you need to make up your own mind and be able to explain why. NOTE: being able to do a quick sketch could be helpful to you in the exam so this is good practice!

Criticisms of the model

• Some say it is too Eurocentric as it was based on the experience of Western Europe
• It may not be completely relevant to the experience of other countries in other areas
• Many LICs may not follow the sequence set out by the model
• Fails to take migration into account
• Presumes all countries will eventually pass through all stages
• This process also implies socio-economic progress which can be looked at in greater detail through the following questions:
  • Can LICs today hope to achieve either the demographic transition or the economic progress enjoyed by HICs that passed through the transition at a different time and under different circumstances?
  • Is the socio-economic change experienced by HICs a prerequisite or a consequence of demographic transition?

Demographic Transition in LICs

LICs have undergone demographic change slightly differently, which gives strength to the criticisms mentioned above:

• In stages 1 and 2, birth rates were generally higher. In Africa about a dozen countries have a birth rate of 45/1000 or above, and 20 years ago the number of African countries in this position was significantly higher.
• The death rate fell more steeply as rather than having to work to discover and create medicines, LICs benefited from the sharing of pre-existing western medicines. Inoculation also had a very rapid impact on falling death rates due to their prevention of a number of terminal diseases.
• However, the AIDs epidemic in a number of Sub-Saharan African countries causes greater death rates and so had the opposite impact.
• Some countries had significantly higher base populations which then meant that the growth occurring in stage 2 and the early part of stage 3 was also much higher. No countries now considered HICs had populations anywhere near the size of India and China when they entered stage 2 of demographic transition.
• For countries in stage 3, the fall in fertility has also been steeper, largely due to the widespread availability of modern contraception with high levels of reliability. Like medicine, in HICs this had to be pioneered, whereas in LICs it simply needed sharing.
• The relationship between population change and economic development has been less easy to pin point in LICs, and often the link is very weak.

Different models of demographic transition

Czech demographer, Pavlik, recognised two alternative types of population change shown in the diagrams above. In France, the birth rate fell at about the same time as the death rate and there was no intermediate period of high natural increase. In Japan and Mexico, the birth rate actually increased in stage 2 due mainly to the improved health of women in the reproductive age range.

Tasks: 1. Discuss the merits and limitations of the model of demographic transition. 2. Why has the death rate in MICs and LICs fallen much more steeply over the last 50 years in comparison with the fall in death rate earlier in history in HICs?

Changes in demographic indices over time

• Birth and death rates in stages 1-3 broadly correspond to those in many poorer societies today
• Infant mortality fell from 200/1000 in 1770 to just over 100/1000 in 1870
• Today the average infant mortality for the developing world as a whole is 50/1000
• Only the very poorest countries today have infant mortality rates over 100/1000
• Infant mortality is regarded as a key measure of socio-economic development

Task – using Figure 4.22, rank the factors that influenced birth and death rates between 1700 and 2000. Explain your ranking.

Issues of ageing populations

Different patterns of demographics in a population can create both problems and benefits for a country. This is particularly the case when a country has a particularly high percentage of either old or young people.

According to the United Nations ‘Population ageing is unprecedented, without parallel in human history and the 21st century will witness even more rapid ageing than did the century just past.’ In 1800, less than 25% of men would live to age 60 in Europe. Today more than 90% do.

Ageing population (demographic ageing): a rise in the median age of a population. This occurs when fertility declines while life expectancy remains the same or increases.

The following factors have been highlighted by the United Nations:

• global average for life expectancy increased from 46 years in 1950 to 71 in 2014. It is projected to reach 76 by 2050.
• in LICs, the population aged 60 years and over is expected to quadruple between 2000 and 2050.
• In HICs, the number of older people was greater than that of children for the first time in 1998. By 2050, older people in HICs will outnumber children by more than two to one.
• The population aged 80 years and over numbered 69 million in 2000. This was the fastest growing section of the global population, which is projected to increase to 375 million by 2050.

The progressive demographic ageing of the older population itself – globally, the average annual growth rate of people aged 80 and over (3.8%) is twice as high as the growth of population 60 and over (1.9%).

• Europe is the ‘oldest’ region in the world, but Japan is the oldest nation with a median age of 45 years.
• Africa is the ‘youngest’ region in the world, with the proportion of children (under 15 years old) accounting for 41% of the population today. However, this is expected to decline to 28% by 2050. In contrast, the proportion of older people is projected to increase from 5% to 10% over the same time period.

The percentage of total population aged 65 years and over, 2014.

Region	Population aged 65 and over (%)
World	8
Africa	4
North America	14
Latin America/Caribbean	7
Asia	7
Europe	17
Oceania	11

Task – Explain the regional variations in the data shown above.

Task – Create a fact file of information about Japan that you could use to support your response to an essay question on ageing populations.

Issues of youthful populations

Rapid population growth results in large young dependent population.

Young dependent population: the population aged under 15 years old.

The percentage of total population under 15 years of age (2013)

Country	% population under 15 years of age
World	26
Africa	41
North America	19
Latin America/Caribbean	27
Asia	25
Europe	16
Oceania	24

The highest figures for individual countries are in Niger (50%), Chad (49%), Somalia, Uganda, Angola and Mali (all 48%).

Countries with large young populations have to allocate a substantial proportion of their national resources to look after them. Young people require resources for health, education, food, water and housing. The money required to cover such needs may mean there is little left to invest in agriculture, industry and other aspects of the economy. A LIC government might see this as being too large a demand on the country’s resources and as a result may introduce family planning policies to reduce the birth rate. However, individual parents may have a different view, where they see a large family as valuable in terms of the work children can do on the land. Alongside this, people in poor countries often have to rely on their children in old age because of the lack of state welfare benefits.

As a large population moves up the age ladder, it will provide a large working population when it enters the economically active age group (15-64). This will be an advantage if a country can attract sufficient investment to create enough jobs for a large working population. Then, they will contribute a lot of money in taxes to the country, which can be invested in many different ways to improve the quality of life and to attract further foreign investment. Such a situation can create an upward spiral of economic growth. On the other hand, if there are few employment opportunities for a large working population, the unemployment rate will be high. The government and most individual will have little money and the quality of life will be low. Many young adults will try to emigrate because of the lack of opportunities in their own country.

Eventually, the large number of people in this age group will reach old age. If most of them enter old age in poverty even more problems will be created.

The link between population and development

Development – the improvement in quality of life

Development is a wide ranging concept that includes wealth, along with other important aspects of life including health, freedom of speech and democracy.

Development occurs where there are improvements to the individual factors that make up ‘quality of life’. For example, development occurs in LICs when:

• improvements are made in local food supply due to investment in machinery and fertilisers
• electricity supply extends outwards from the main urban areas into rural areas allowing many more people to access power
• new roads or railways extend accessibility into previously remote areas
• levels of literacy improve throughout the country
• average incomes increase above the level of inflation.

The causes of development are much debated. Detailed studies have shown that variations between countries are due to a variety of factors:

Physical Geography

• Landlocked countries are at a disadvantage when it comes to trade and have generally developed more slowly than coastal countries
• Small island countries often lack resources and face significant disadvantages in development
• Tropical countries have grown more slowly than those in temperate latitudes. This is largely due to poor health and unproductive farming. However, richer non-agricultural tropical countries, such as Singapore, have not suffered a geographical deficit of this kind.
• Generous natural resources spurs economic growth in many countries

Economic Policies

• Open economies that have welcomed foreign investment have developed more quickly than closed economies.
• Fast-growing countries tend to have high rates of saving and low spending relative to GDP.
• Institutional quality in terms of good government, law and order and lack of corruption generally result in a high rate of growth.

Demography

• Progress through demographic transition is a significant factor, with the highest rates of economic growth experiences by those nations where the birth rate has fallen the most.

The Human Development Index

The Human Development Index (HDI) was devised in 1990 by the United Nations to indicate levels of development in countries. It contains four variables:

• life expectancy at birth
• mean years of schooling for adults aged 25 years
• expected years of schooling for children of school-entering age
• GNI per person (PPP)

The knowledge strand is also sometimes looked at as literacy rate for all members of the population age 15 and above.

The figures for these pieces of information are converted into an index that has a maximum value of 1.0. The four are then added together and averaged to give an overall value with a maximum of 1.0. An annual ‘Human Development Report’ is published by the United Nations which ranks the countries in order of development.

Various academics have concluded that there is no straight forward relationship between population and economic growth. Some economies with a low level of economic growth may not be affected by population growth, but are likely to be more affected by other factors such as political instability and lack of investment. On the other hand, some economies that achieve a high level of economic growth may not have done so mainly because of declining population growth, but due to other factors.